We model the paths the market is not pricing, show the weak signals already visible, and tell you exactly what would make a 0.7% risk a 15% one — with the source trail and the model behind every number.
A weak-signal and scenario-intelligence system for sovereign wealth funds, public pensions, endowments, insurers, and family offices. The market prices what is obvious. The Probability Desk exists to help serious allocators see what is not obvious yet.
Every probability decomposes into its inputs — base rate, expert prior, market signal, simulation, judgment — each with confidence and a timestamp. When a CIO asks “where did that number come from?”, the answer is on the page.
Every forecast is a resolvable question, logged with its prior, and Brier-scored as it resolves. We publish our calibration record. Almost no one else in this category does.
We state, explicitly, where our view differs from what the market appears to be pricing — and what evidence would close the gap. The gap is the product.
The Probability Desk — Wednesday, 26 August 2026 Oil gave back most of a week's war premium in three sessions because two foreign ministers in Tehran discussed a corridor. The corridor does not yet exist, the mines are cleared only in a social-
Every call runs through an ensemble — base rate, expert prior, market signal, and (where available) simulation — weighted by a written rule into a base case, an upside and a tail that sum to 100%. We publish a calibration log and keep score.
Hormuz is shut and the 60-day US-Iran memorandum expired on 17 August with no successor. From spot $93.26, the Desk puts 58% on a $100 Brent print within 30 trading days - below its own 50,000-path model.
Subject line: A signed deal reopened Hormuz to 27 ships a day The Islamabad Memorandum expired on Monday without a successor. It
Subject line: Nineteen basis points from the number that reprices every liability The 30-year Treasury touched 5.33% on Tuesday morning
Texas Just Discovered It Has a Veto Over the AI Build The Probability Desk — Monday, 17 August 2026 The most permissive large-
Oil carries a war premium, equities are selling their AI winners, and high-yield credit sits at 271bp as if nothing happened. The Desk prices the odds that calm breaks by September 30.
Soft June inflation and a cooling job market argue for cuts — but the broken Iran ceasefire has oil back above $85, threatening to reverse the disinflation the Fed just banked. Where year-end rates land.
Every scenario also runs as a short video and an audio briefing.
A flagship Probability Desk report is instrumented, not narrated. Each one carries, on the page:
Every scenario briefing follows the same structure — from the trigger to the reprice.
The structural event that started the clock.
The small, early, often local indicators visible before the story is mainstream.
The most-likely path, with its weight and the items to watch.
The low-probability, high-severity scenario and what triggers it.
Where our view differs from what the market appears to price — and what closes it.
How a local trigger becomes a portfolio exposure for a whole-market book.
The daily scenario, video and podcast are free. The decision-grade research — source ledger, accountability ledger, data exports, watchlists, and bespoke monitoring — is for institutional members.
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Research, charts, video and podcast analysis for the institutions investing at the scale of the world.
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