The morning intelligence briefing
Daily, weekday mornings ET. The most important story shaping long-horizon capital, told in 8–12 minutes.
The afternoon scenario report
Daily, weekday afternoons ET. Probability-weighted scenarios for the second-order effects that matter to capital that thinks in decades.
The Universal Owner
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Updated live from Podbean
Mon, Jun 22, 2026
The Universal Owner — You Own It. Now You’re Lending to It (June 22, 2026)
The Universal Owner — “You own it. Now you’re lending to it.” Today’s ~7-minute audio briefing: the credit
Sun, Jun 21, 2026
The Universal Owner — Sunday, June 21, 2026
The Fed moved its own 2026 median dot above today's policy rate and put nine officials on record for a hike. For owners of long-duration everything, that is the week. One chart.
Thu, Jun 18, 2026
The Universal Owner — Thursday, June 18, 2026
The Warsh Fed held rates, erased the last cut, and nine members now dot a hike this year. The world's largest fund just recovered $68bn from its Q1 rout. One chart.
The Probability Desk
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Updated live from Podbean
Wed, Jun 10, 2026
Probability Desk Daily Record — June 10, 2026
Where the desk's governed beliefs stand at day's end: what moved, what did not, the consensus blind spot, and what to watch next.
Tue, Jun 9, 2026
Probability Desk Daily Record — June 9, 2026
Where the desk's governed beliefs stand at day's end: what moved, what did not, the consensus blind spot, and what to watch next.
Mon, Jun 8, 2026
Probability Desk Daily Record — June 8, 2026
Where the desk's governed beliefs stand at day's end: what moved, what did not, the consensus blind spot, and what to watch next.
The Daily Brief
The morning briefing for the people who allocate long-horizon capital.
Research, charts, video and podcast analysis for the institutions investing at the scale of the world.
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